Mexico’s government has unveiled what it called a “realistic but conservative” 2020 budget that targets a 2 per cent rise in economic growth and a wave of social spending, but analysts warned that some of its key assumptions were too optimistic. Arturo Herrera, finance minister in the leftist administration led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, acknowledged a difficult international outlook had forced officials to rework their calculations after an escalation in US-China trade friction led to a weakening of the peso and oil prices. Mexico, Latin America’s second-biggest economy, is teetering on the brink of recession after a 0.2 per cent contraction in the first three months of this year. The 2020 growth projection in the budget would represent a jump from 0.6 per cent to 1.2 per cent this year and is based on assumptions of a 15 per cent rise in oil production and an increase in tax revenues that some analysts warned were too optimistic.
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