Indeed, key indicators of housing demand, including existing-home sales, construction permits, and housing starts, are all down year over year through the first eight months of the year. First, the public homebuilders reported 7% order growth during the second quarter after two straight quarters of year-over-year declines. While we can’t predict when the next recession will begin, nor do we assume that one will occur over our 10-year housing forecast, we are confident that when it does arise, the effect on the housing market will be nowhere near as severe as it was during the last recession.
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