Although it’s a frequent refrain on the campaign trail, we think Medicare for All or similar policies promising universal coverage are unlikely to see success over the next decade. After analyzing the policy positions of the leading candidates seeking the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2020, the U.S. Senate landscape in the upcoming election, and the preferences of likely voters on both sides of the aisle, we think investors should consider the probability that a policy similar to Medicare for All will see success to be in the 5%-10% range at best. Aside from the political barriers to broader support of a universal healthcare system, cost remains a key hurdle.
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